conventional
organic
pricing
trends
vs.
By: Isabella Silveira, Olivia Nance, Kate Giddings, Annabelle Cokinos, Mia Sabom
Insights into Pricing Trends, Seasonality, and Volatility
project
goals
Research Question: How do pricing trends
differ between organic and conventional
vegetables in East Coast and West Coast
markets?
Objective: Understand pricing dynamics
between organic and conventional
vegetable prices to provide actionable
insights
variables of interest
Price, type (organic vs. conventional),
month, and specific vegetable items.
dataset
USDA Economic Research
Service Organic Prices
Dataset (2012–2013).
Focus
Seasonal trends,
volatility, and price
premiums in organic vs.
conventional markets.
exploratory analysis
No Synthetic Pesticides or Fertilizers: Organic farming prohibits the use of synthetic chemicals for pest control, weed management, or soil fertilization. Non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organisms): Organic vegetables must come from seeds that are non-GMO. Natural Pest and Disease Control: Organic farmers rely on natural pest and disease control methods. Soil Health and Fertility: Organic farming focuses on maintaining and improving soil health. The soil cannot be treated with synthetic or non-organic chemicals. No Artificial Preservatives or Additives: Organic vegetables must be free from synthetic preservatives, dyes, or other chemical additives to be considered organic.
organic?
what is
who buys
organic?
who buys
conventional?
vs.
Comparing average prices:
vs.
Key Insight: Organic vegetables maintain a substantial price premium over conventional ones, indicating a steady demand for organic produce and higher production costs.
organic
conventional
$12.96
cabbage
(2012) - organic vs. conventional
ATL: $37.18 SF: $31.74
Organic
Conventional
cabbage
organic vs. conventional - (2013)
ATL: $46.23 SF: $41
ATL: $13.78 SF: $16.54
Organic
Conventional
Lettuce
organic vs. conventional - (2012)
ATL: $39.96 SF: $14.66
ATL: $17.37 SF: $26.78
Conventional
Organic
lettuce
(2013) - organic vs. conventional
Conventional
Organic
ATL: $41.03 SF: $29.98
ATL: $20.91 SF: $18.48
carrots
(2012) - organic vs. conventional
ATL Mean: $28.4 SF Mean: $21.7
aTL Mean: $12.3 SF Mean: $7.9
Conventional
Organic
carrots
organic vs. conventional - (2013)
ATL Mean: $24.3 SF Mean: $24.8
ATL Mean: $11.8 SF Mean: $7.8
Conventional
Organic
sweet potato
(2012) - organic vs. conventional
ATL Mean: $38.93 SF Mean: $37.50
ATL Mean: $19.16 SF Mean: $26.42
Conventional
Organic
sweet potato
organic vs. conventional - (2013)
ATL Mean: $34.01 SF Mean: $40.83
ATL Mean: $19.64 SF Mean: $20.75
Conventional
Organic
organic avg. prices
atl vs. San fran
conventional avg. prices
atl vs. San fran
correlation between
and
organic
conventional
correlation
A moderate & positive correlation (0.57) between organic and conventional prices, which suggests that there is a relationship but they aren’t strongly dependent on one another.
Implication
This moderate correlation highlights the complexity of the pricing market- both are influenced by different unique factors.
What’s the price premium?
organics vs. conventional
Moderate Correlation Organic and conventional prices influence each other moderately, but each market has unique drivers.
summary of key findings
Organic Premium Organic vegetables maintain a substantial price premium.
Volatility Organic prices are more volatile, with frequent seasonal outliers.
Seasonal Patterns Conventional prices dip in certain months, likely due to harvest cycles.
Thank You!
Appendix
Key Insight: Organic vegetables exhibit higher volatility throughout the year, with notable price spikes in items like Artichokes and Tomatoes. This volatility suggests that organic markets are more sensitive to supply chain disruptions or seasonal demand fluctuations, making pricing less predictable and potentially riskier for retailers.
price volatility
(2012 vs. 2013) - organic
Key Insight: Conventional vegetable prices are generally more stable, with smaller fluctuations month-to-month. This stability indicates a more resilient supply chain and lower sensitivity to seasonal factors, making conventional vegetables a more consistent option for consumers and retailers in terms of pricing.
price volatility
(2012 vs. 2013) - conventional