conventional

organic

pricing

trends

vs.

By: Isabella Silveira, Olivia Nance, Kate Giddings, Annabelle Cokinos, Mia Sabom

Insights into Pricing Trends, Seasonality, and Volatility

project
goals

Research Question: How do pricing trends
differ between organic and conventional
vegetables in East Coast and West Coast
markets?

Objective: Understand pricing dynamics
between organic and conventional
vegetable prices to provide actionable
insights

variables of interest

Price, type (organic vs. conventional),
month, and specific vegetable items.

dataset

USDA Economic Research
Service Organic Prices
Dataset (2012–2013).

Focus

Seasonal trends,
volatility, and price
premiums in organic vs.
conventional markets.

exploratory analysis

No Synthetic Pesticides or Fertilizers: Organic farming prohibits the use of synthetic chemicals for pest control, weed management, or soil fertilization. Non-GMO (Genetically Modified Organisms): Organic vegetables must come from seeds that are non-GMO. Natural Pest and Disease Control: Organic farmers rely on natural pest and disease control methods. Soil Health and Fertility: Organic farming focuses on maintaining and improving soil health. The soil cannot be treated with synthetic or non-organic chemicals. No Artificial Preservatives or Additives: Organic vegetables must be free from synthetic preservatives, dyes, or other chemical additives to be considered organic.

organic?

what is

who buys

organic?

who buys

conventional?

vs.

Comparing average prices:

vs.

Key Insight: Organic vegetables maintain a substantial price premium over conventional ones, indicating a steady demand for organic produce and higher production costs.

organic

conventional

$12.96

cabbage

(2012) - organic vs. conventional

ATL: $37.18 SF: $31.74

Organic

Conventional

cabbage

organic vs. conventional - (2013)

ATL: $46.23 SF: $41

ATL: $13.78 SF: $16.54

Organic

Conventional

Lettuce

organic vs. conventional - (2012)

ATL: $39.96 SF: $14.66

ATL: $17.37 SF: $26.78

Conventional

Organic

lettuce

(2013) - organic vs. conventional

Conventional

Organic

ATL: $41.03 SF: $29.98

ATL: $20.91 SF: $18.48

carrots

(2012) - organic vs. conventional

ATL Mean: $28.4 SF Mean: $21.7

aTL Mean: $12.3 SF Mean: $7.9

Conventional

Organic

carrots

organic vs. conventional - (2013)

ATL Mean: $24.3 SF Mean: $24.8

ATL Mean: $11.8 SF Mean: $7.8

Conventional

Organic

sweet potato

(2012) - organic vs. conventional

ATL Mean: $38.93 SF Mean: $37.50

ATL Mean: $19.16 SF Mean: $26.42

Conventional

Organic

sweet potato

organic vs. conventional - (2013)

ATL Mean: $34.01 SF Mean: $40.83

ATL Mean: $19.64 SF Mean: $20.75

Conventional

Organic

organic avg. prices

atl vs. San fran

conventional avg. prices

atl vs. San fran

correlation between

and

organic

conventional

correlation

A moderate & positive correlation (0.57) between organic and conventional prices, which suggests that there is a relationship but they aren’t strongly dependent on one another.

Implication

This moderate correlation highlights the complexity of the pricing market- both are influenced by different unique factors.

What’s the price premium?

organics vs. conventional

Moderate Correlation Organic and conventional prices influence each other moderately, but each market has unique drivers.

summary of key findings

Organic Premium Organic vegetables maintain a substantial price premium.

Volatility Organic prices are more volatile, with frequent seasonal outliers.

Seasonal Patterns Conventional prices dip in certain months, likely due to harvest cycles.

Thank You!

Appendix

Key Insight: Organic vegetables exhibit higher volatility throughout the year, with notable price spikes in items like Artichokes and Tomatoes. This volatility suggests that organic markets are more sensitive to supply chain disruptions or seasonal demand fluctuations, making pricing less predictable and potentially riskier for retailers.

price volatility

(2012 vs. 2013) - organic

Key Insight: Conventional vegetable prices are generally more stable, with smaller fluctuations month-to-month. This stability indicates a more resilient supply chain and lower sensitivity to seasonal factors, making conventional vegetables a more consistent option for consumers and retailers in terms of pricing.

price volatility

(2012 vs. 2013) - conventional